Yanditswe na Nema Ange
Intambara yatangiye benshi tuzi ko ari imikino ku wa 24 Gashyantare 2022, none amezi abiri yaruzuye rucyambikanye hagati y’ingabo z’Uburusiya n’iza Ukraine. Ingaruka nyinshi zo twarazibonye: ibiciro hafi ku bicuruzwa byose byarazamutse kugeza no kuri dodo zera ku turima tw’igikoni. Ni intambara ivuze byinshi muri politiki ariko by’umwihariko mu bukungu, dore ko Uburusiya bwayitangije buza mu bihugu bya mbere byohereza hanze peteroli, gaz, ingano n’ibindi bikenerwa na benshi buri munsi.
Ku ikarita y’isi, Uburusiya na Ukraine biri mu bilometero bisaga 9,000 uvuye mu Rwanda ariko mu buzima busanzwe ni nk’aho duturanye mu gikari. Iminsi ibiri y’intambara yari ihagije ngo ibisasu byatewe muri Ukraine, tariki 24/02/2022, bigire ingaruka ku bukungu bw’umuturage wihingira umuceri mu Bugarama, i Rusizi no ku Mukunguri mu Ruhango cyangwa wihingira ibirayi i Nyabihu no mu Kinigi cya Musanze.
Mu bucuruzi bw’ako kanya, u Rwanda nta sano ya hafi rufitanye n’Uburusiya cyangwa Ukraine ariko hari byinshi bituruka muri ibyo bihugu u Rwanda rukoresha, ariyo mpamvu uko byagenda kose, uretse no kuzamuka kw’ibiciro, no mu bucuruzi busanzwe hari ibyavaga muri ibyo bihugu bitakigera mu Rwanda cyangwa se bikahagera bigoranye. Ese bikwiye kuba urwitwazo rwo kuzamura ibiciro, ku buryo 1 Kg cy’isukari kigura 2,000FRW? Niba se na dodo zihingwa ku karima k’igikoni zarahenze, ubwo twabihuza gute?
Mu ngano zikoreshwa mu Rwanda, mu migati ikorwa mu ifarini n’inganda z’inzoga, 64% zituruka mu Burusiya, n’ubwo u Rwanda ruzifatira muri Tanzania. Ku ifumbire mvaruganda u Rwanda rukoresha, 14 % ituruka mu Burusiya, ni nayo mpamvu ibiciro byayo byakomeje kuzamuka mu minsi ishize kugeza ubwo Guverinoma yongereye nkunganire yageneraga abahinzi ngo badakomeza kugorwa no kuyigura. Ubundi se imaze iki? Ni izihe nyigo zakozwe ngo zerekane ko ubutaka bw’u Rwanda bwose bukeneye iyi fumbire?
Urubuga rw’Umuryango w’Ubufatanye mu bukungu n’Iterambere, OECD (Organization for Economic Co- operation and Development), rugaragaza ko u Rwanda ruvana muri Ukraine amavuta y’ibihwagari, ifarini, na za fer à béton. Ni mu gihe bimwe mu bicuruzwa byo mu Rwanda byoherezwa muri icyo gihugu ari ikawa n’icyayi. Imibare dukesha Ikigo cy’Igihugu cy’Ibarurishamibare (NISR), igaragaza ko mu myaka itanu ishize (2017-2021), u Rwanda rwavanye mu Burusiya na Ukraine ibicuruzwa bifite agaciro gasaga 240,000,000,000 FRW, mu gihe ibyo rwohereje muri ibyo bihugu bisaga gato 16,000,000,000 FRW.
Mu Burusiya muri iyo myaka yose, u Rwanda rwoherejeyo ibicuruzwa bya 14,500,000,000FRW, rukurayo ibisaga 217,000,000,000 FRW. Muri Ukraine rwoherejeyo ibicuruzwa bya 720,000,000,000 FRW, ruvanayo ibya 25,000,000,000 FRW. Ibi bigaragaza ko Ukraine yari ifitiye agaciro u Rwanda kurenza Uburusiya. Ese nta handi amasoko yaboneka atari mu Burusiya no muri Ukraine? Habura iki se ngo haboneke?
Amavuta y’ibihwagari ari mubyo u Rwanda rwakuraga muri Ukraine. Ubu ku masoko ibiciro byayo byaratumbagiye. N’ubwo Uburusiya na Ukraine bitaza mu bihugu bya mbere u Rwanda rukorana nabyo ubucuruzi, kuba hari intambara imaze amezi abiri kandi hari ibicuruzwa bivayo by’ingenzi, nta kuntu bitagira ingaruka ku bucuruzi n’ubukungu bw’u Rwanda. Ariko se u Rwanda ntirwaba rubyitwaza rugahenda abaturage? Ikindi Ukraine n’Uburusiya bikorana ubucuruzi bwa hafi n’ibihugu by’i Burayi, nabyo bigakorana bya hafi n’ibihugu by’Afurika. Ikibazo cyose cyaza hagati y’izo mpande zombi, biragoye ko Afurika yagihunga igihe kirekire. Kuri ibi hakiyongeraho kuba ibyo ibihugu by’Afurika byohereza biba bidatunganyije, ariko bikazagaruka ku isoko ry’Afurika igiciro cyikubye inshuro nyinshi cyane, abaturage bakahagokera bikomeye.
Kuba Uburusiya ari igihugu cya kabiri ku Isi cyohereza hanze ibikomoka kuri peteroli kandi bikaba bikenerwa n’ibihugu byose ku Isi, ntabwo intambara yabwo yabura kugira ingaruka no ku bihugu bitayirimo. Inzobere mu bukungu Habyarimana Straton, aherutse kuvuga ko kwiyongera kw’ibiciro kuzagira ingaruka mbi ku
bukungu bw’u Rwanda kuko bishobora gutiza umurindi izamuka ry’ibiciro ku masoko byitezwe ko rishobora kugera kuri 8% uyu mwaka. Gusa uyu mubare ni mutoya cyane ku buryo hari ibicuruzwa byamaze kugera kuri 50%, ahandi birarenga. Yongereyeho ko ubundi buryo bwahungabanya ubukungu bw’u Rwanda, ari imbaraga abanyaburayi n’abanyamerika bazashyira muri iyi ntambara. Ariko nta mahirwe menshi abiha. Yagize ati: “imbaraga nyinshi bashobora kuzishyira mu guha inkunga Ukraine, izo bageneraga ibihugu by’Afurika zikagabanyuka cyangwa se iwabo byadogera, bakaba bahagaritse ibyo bafashishaga ibindi bihugu”. Ibi rero ni kwa kundi haba hari ibihugu bicungira ku mfashanyo z’amahanga aho kwigira.
Minisitiri w’Ubucuruzi n’Inganda, Habyarimana Béata, aherutse kuvuga ko bari kuganira n’abacuruzi kugira ngo harebwe uburyo bashaka andi masoko baranguriramo ibyo bavanaga mu Burusiya na Ukraine. Intambara y’u Burusiya na Ukraine yatumye ibikomoka kuri peteroli bizamuka kugeza ubwo akagunguru kamwe kaguzwe amadolari asaga 110, ibiciro by’ingano, gaz, Aluminium n’ibindi biriyongera cyane, ku buryo ibihugu byinshi bitagishoboye kwigondera igiciro cy’ibicuruzwa nkenerwa bya buri munsi, kuva ku byo kurya, ibikoresho by’ubwubatsi, n’ibindi bikoresho ibihugu byinshi byakuraga muri ibi bihugu byugarijwe n’intambara.
Ku rwego mpuzamahanga, Uburusiya buri mu bihugu bya mbere byohereza hanze ibikomoka kuri peteroli, gaz, charbon, Aluminium n’ingano mu gihe Ukraine yohereza hanze ingano n’amavuta y’ibihwagari, aho litiro imwe y’aya mavuta igeze ku 4,000FRW. Ibi rero ntibikwiye kureberwa mu ndorerwamo yo kuzamura ibiciro mu Rwanda kuko rufite ahandi rwavana amasoko, kandi ibicuruzwa byazamuye ibiciro si ibiva muri ibi bihugu gusa kuko n’ibikorerwa mu Rwanda byahenze, hakitwaza izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibikomoka kuri peteroli.
Igiteye agahinda kandi gikabije gufata indi ntera ni uko ubucuruzi mu Rwanda bwihariwe n’agatsiko k’abantu bakeya cyane, bigatuma bashyiraho ibiciro uko bishakiye, batitaye kuri rubanda rwa giseseka, ruhora runyunyuzwa ibyakabatunze, amafaranga yose akigira ku ma comptes ya FPR mu gihugu no mu mahanga.
Birababaje kuba igihugu kivuga ko gitanga uburenganzira bwo gucuruza uko ushaka (libre échange) ariko ugasanga ibiciro bishyirwaho na Leta, ibindi bigashyirwaho n’abambari bayo, ku buryo umuturage arushaho gukena no gukeneshwa, agasigara adafite n’urwara rwo kwishima, mu gihe agatsiko ko gakomeza kwigwizaho imitungo, ku kibi no ku cyiza, hatitawe ku mibereho y’umuryango n’iy’abawugize. FPR niyo ibyungukiramo.
Ingaruka intambara hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine ifite ku Rwanda zigaragara, ariko ikigero ziriho ni nkeya ugereranyije n’iziterwa n’abategetsi babi batita ku bibazo by’abaturage, aho bagashishikazwa no kubakama kugeza ku mata yo mu ihembe. Ese bazakama abaturage kugeza ryari?
Nta handi rero dusanga hava amakiriro y’abaturage uretse guhaguruka bakarengera uburenganzira bwabo, bakibariza, kabone n’iyo abambari b’agatsiko batabyishimira, ariko nta bapfira gushira. Bamwe bazapfa, ariko hari abazarokoka kandi bazatura mu gihugu kizira amacakubiri n’inzangano, aho abaturage bazatura mu gihugu kizira intambara umunyarwanda arwana n’undi, ahubwo bakabana mu gihugu kirangwa n’ukuri, ubutabera, ubuntu n’ubupfura, ubumwe n’ubwiyunge, gukunda igihugu no kugitandukanya na systeme ikomeje gukandamiza abaturage, n’izindi ndangagaciro zose ziranga umuco nyarwanda twarazwe n’abatubanjirije, bitanze batizigama kugira bahange uru Rwanda, nirugera no mu mage barwubure.
Nema Ange