IMF UBUKUNGU BW’U RWANDA BUZAZAMUKA ?

Mu gihe isi yose ihangayikishijwe n’icyorezo gishya cya Covid-19 yihinduranyije kikitwa “Omicron”, Leta ya Kigali yo ikomeje gukataza mu gutekinika no gutanga imibare itabaho, kandi akenshi ikarangwa no kwivuguruza gukomeye. Biratangaje kumva ko ifaranga ry’u Rwanda rimaze gutakaza agaciro ku kigero cya 13% mu myaka ibiri gusa, kumva ko amadeni u Rwanda rufitiye amahanga yarenze 80%, ubushomeri buzamuka uko bwije n’uko bukeye, abajya mu nsi y’umurongo w’ubukene (seuil de pauvreté), n’ibindi bigaragaza ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda busigaje izuba rimwe, ariko FPR ikajyaho ikabeshya imibare, IMF nayo ikayishingiraho ikemeza ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buzazamuka ku kigero cya 10.2% mu mwaka wa 2021.

Noneho kuri iyi nshuro, umuzindaro wa FPR witwa IGIHE, wasohotse ku wa 29/11/2021, watangaje inkuru igira iti : “Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buzazamuka ku kigero cya 10.2%; bishoboka gute muri ibi bihe bya Covid-19? ”, yavugaga ko Ikigega Mpuzahamanga cy’Imari, IMF, giherutse gutangaza ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda muri uyu mwaka wa 2021, buzazamuka ku kigero cya 10.2%, aho kuba 5,1% yari yateganyijwe mu ntangiriro z’uyu mwaka. Bivuze ko kizikuba kabiri, nyamara nta musaruro ugaragara wiyongereye ndetse, ibiciro ku masoko bikomeje kuzamuka ubutitsa.

Igihe.com gisobanura ko kuva igihe Covid-19 yageraga mu Rwanda, hari impinduka yazanye nayo, kandi zagombaga kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku bukungu. Kikerekana ko aho Leta ikura amafaranga hagabanutse, kuko ibikorwa by’ubucuruzi byahagaze muri za Guma mu rugo za hato na hato, bityo imisoro ikaba itarinjiraga uko bisanzwe, nyamara Leta yo igasabwa gusohora byinshi mu rwego rwo kwirinda icyorezo. None se niba Leta yarasohoye itinjiza ubwo ubukungu bwazamuka bute? Ubwo amaburakindi azaba kwiguriza hirya no hino. Ese amafaranga yigurizwa mu mahanga abyara inyungu?

Uku kwiguriza ntigushobora gutuma habaho izamuka ry’ubukungu, kuko nk’uko dukunda kubivuga, inguzanyo zifatwa ntizishorwa mu mishinga yunguka, ahubwo zijya kwishyura izindi nguzanyo cyangwa zigashorwa mu mishinga yahombye nka Rwanda Air, andi agasahurirwa ku ma konti ya FPR ari mu mahanga. Ibi se bisaba inzobere mu bukungu ngo zerekane ko nta zamuka ry’ubukungu ryashoboka, mu gihe igihugu gisohora ntacyo cyinjiza? Icyagakwiye kwinjiza amadovize ni ubukerarugendo n’ubucuruzi bw’amabuye y’agaciro: ibi byombi biteranye se byinjije angahe ku buryo izamuka ry’ubukungu ryakwikuba kabiri?

Ibi rero nibyo byatumye Leta isigarana amahitamo make cyane kugira ngo ikomeze kurushya iminsi, ari yo yo gufata inguzanyo hirya no hino, nta n’icyizere cyo kuzayishyura. Ariko kuko FPR ititaye ku hazaza h’u Rwanda, irakuramo ayayo, abana b’u Rwanda bazasigare birwariza. Icyo bita “après moi le deluge!”. Ntabwo bishoboka ko ubukungu bwazamuka kuri kiriya kigero mu gihe amadeni y’amahanga yamaze kurenga 80% bya GDP, azakomeza kuzamuka akagera aho amahanga atakomeza kubyihanganira, ahubwo azashaka ibyo afatira kugira ngo yiyishyure ibyo yagurije Kagame. Ntibyadutungura batwaye ibibuga by’indege, bagatwara za Kagame Convention, bagatwara za Arena, bagatwara za mines zicukurwamo amabuye y’agaciro, amahoteli n’ibindi bishobora gutuma biyishyura. Iki nicyo kinyoma cya FPR cyahumye amaso IMF. Abasesenguzi berekana ko igabanuka ry’ibyo Leta yinjiza n’ubwiyongere bw’inguzanyo birema icyuho mu ngengo y’imari.

 Bigomba kumvikana ko byagombaga kuba no ku Rwanda, aho byitezwe ko iki cyuho kizazamuka kikagera kuri 9,1% muri uyu mwaka w’ingengo y’imari, kivuye kuri 8,6% mu mwaka ushize.

Umugishwanama mu bijyanye n’ubukungu n’imari, Habyarimana Straton, yavuze ko nta yandi mahitamo u Rwanda rwari rufite uretse gufata inguzanyo zizatuma Leta ibasha kongera kubaka ubukungu bwayo. Yagize ati “Iyo Leta yemeye kujya muri icyo gihombo (icyuho mu ngengo y’imari) kugira ngo ishake amafaranga ariko ubukungu bwaguke, icyo iba igamije ni uko urwego rw’abikorera n’izindi ngeri z’ubukungu, zo zaguka, ni nko kubaha amahirwe yo kwaguka.” Ibi rero ntibishobora gutuma ubukungu buzamuka kuko ahanini bushingiye ku ishoramari rya Leta, by’umwihariko rya FPR, kurusha uko bwashingira ku ishoramari ry’ibigo byigenga (private operators). None se ni gute ubukungu bwazamuka kandi aho Leta yakuraga hafunze, isigaye itunzwe n’inguzanyo? Birumvikana ko kubitekereza ari ukwibeshya.

Iyi mpuguke yavuze ko ibi byose biba bigamije gukumira ubushomeri bw’umurengera n’ubundi buhita bugira ingaruka zikomeye cyane ku bukungu, kuko ubushobozi bw’abaturage bwo gukomeza guhaha bugabanuka, ndetse bikaba byanaganisha ku bwiyongere bw’ubukene n’umutekano mucye. Ibi se si ibigaragarira buri wese?

Yasobanuye ko icyatera impungenge ari uko inguzanyo Leta ifata kugira ngo izibe icyuho gishobora kuvuka mu bukungu, yakoreshwa ibintu bitabyara inyungu “nko kwigurira imodoka nshya, kongera imishahara n’ibindi nk’ibyo bitabyara inyungu mu gihe gito cyangwa kirekire.” Nyamara nibyo FPR ikora gusa.

Yongeyeho ati “Icyo dukwiye gushyiramo imbaraga, ni ukwibaza icyo ayo mafaranga akoreshwa, tukareba niba ari gushorwa mu nzego z’ubukungu zifite akamaro gakomeye kurusha izindi.” Ibi rero wagira ngo yarerekwaga kuko abagiye kuyobora Uturere bavuye i Gishali mu iyozabwonko n’icurikabwenge, ku wa 29/11/2021, bahavuye bamaze gusinya amasezerano yo kubagurira imodoka 90 zihenze cyane, bakazazishyura mu myaka itanu (5), ariko zisonewe imisoro. Leta izungukira hehe? Ntaho.

Muri rusange, izamuka ry’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu rishingiye ku izamuka ry’ishoramari rya Leta. Icyakora Habyarimana yavuze ko ari ngombwa kwibuka ko iyo bavuze ko ubukungu buzazamuka ku kigero runaka, baba babugereranyije n’umwaka ushize, kandi umwaka ushize bukaba bwari bwagabanutse cyane, ku buryo izamuka ry’uyu mwaka, nubwo ryaba ringana n’iryari risanzwe mbere y’icyorezo, rihita riba rinini cyane. Ibi rero ntibikwiye guca igikuba ngo twumve ko u Rwanda rwabaye paradizo mu gihe abaturage ntacyo bungutse. Kuri we ngo “ubukungu buzongera kuzamuka byibuze nyuma y’imyaka itatu nabwo Leta ihinduye uburyo!

Inkuru igezweho ku Isi hose ni iyaduka ry’ubwoko bushya bwa Covid-19, buzwi nka Omicron. Amakuru y’imiterere yabwo ntaramenyekana neza kuko bugikorwaho ubushakashatsi, gusa amakuru y’ibanze ahamya ko ubu bwoko bwihinduranya vuba, ibitanga ubutumwa bw’uko bushobora kuba bufite ubukana buhambaye, ndetse bushobora no guhangara inkingo zimaze gukorwa. Ibi byatumye ibihugu byinshi bitangira gushyiraho ingamba zitandukanye zigamije kwirinda ikwirakwira ry’iki cyorezo, birimo gukumira ingendo z’indege, nabyo bitanga ubutumwa bw’uko ibi bishobora kongera kudindiza ubukungu bw’Isi bwari butangiye kuzahuka.

Nk’aho u Rwanda rwahangayikishijwe no gushakira hamwe ingamba zo kurinda abaturage, ahubwo rurata igihe rutanga amaraporo yuzuyemo itekinika, abeshya amahanga n’Abanyarwanda ko turimo gutera imbere, byahe byo kajya. Dusigaje kuzabyuka rimwe tukumva ngo u Rwanda rwose rwatejwe cyamunara, rwaguzwe n’Ubushinwa cyangwa ikindi gihanganye, Abanyarwanda babaye ingaruzwamuheto, byose kubera umuntu umwe, Kagame n’agatsiko ke, biyemeje kurya akaribwa n’akataribwa, batitaye ku maraso y’inzirakarenga badasiba kumena.

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