ITEKINIKA RYA FPR RYATUMYE IMF ITANGAZA IMIBARE IDASHOBOKA KU RWANDA

Yanditswe na Ahirwe Karoli

U Rwanda rumenyereweho guhora rutekinika imibare, rukigaragaza neza, bigatuma ibigega by’imari ku isi n’ibihugu bitera inkunga ibikiri mu nzira y’amajyambere bihora bigwa mu mutego, bikumva ko u Rwanda rutera imbere, ariko wabishaka ukabibura, kuko ahubwo ubukungu buhora burindimuka, n’ubuhari bukikubirwa n’agatsiko gato cyane kari ku butegetsi bw’igitugu buri i Kigali, budahwema kwigwizaho amadeni.

Ni muri urwo rwego Ikigega Mpuzamahanga cy’Imari (IMF), kuri uyu wa Kabiri, tariki ya 11 Mata 2023, mu mibare mishya cyatangaje, gikesha itekinika rya FPR, igaragaza ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buzazamuka ku gipimo cya 6.2% mu 2023, nyuma y’aho buzamutse ku gipimo cya 6.8% mu 2022. Ibi rero byakiriwe na benshi nko gusetsa imikara, kuko nta terambere rigaragarira amaso mu Rwanda, ahubwo ikigaragara n’itumbagira ry’ibiciro ku masoko, ndetse no kwicisha abaturage inzara byagambiriwe.

Iyi raporo yiswe “World Economic Oulook: A Rocky Recovery “, yasohotse kuri uyu wa Kabiri, igaragaza ko ibibazo by’ubukungu bw’Isi birimo kugenda byoroha n’ubwo ari ku muvuduko uri hasi. Iyi raporo ivuga ko ubukungu bw’u Bushinwa burimo gufunguka, uruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa rukagenda rworoha, n’igitutu cy’ibiciro by’ibikomoka kuri peteroli n’ibiribwa cyatewe n’intambara y’u Burusiya na Ukraine kigacogora.

Imibare yatangajwe muri rusange igaragaza ko Isi igihanganye n’ibibazo by’ubukungu birimo izamuka rikabije ry’ibiciro, ahanini rifitanye isano n’ingaruka z’icyorezo cya COVID-19 n’intambara y’u Burusiya na Ukraine. Igaragaza kandi ko ubukungu bw’Isi buzakomeza gusohoka muri izo ngaruka ariko bizagenda buhoro, kuko iteganyamibare ry’umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ubukungu bw’Isi wamanutse uva kuri 3.4% mu mwaka ushize, uba 2.8% mu 2023. Icyakora, hari icyizere ko iri zamuka riziyongera mu mwaka wa 2024, rikaba 3%.

Iyi raporo nshya ivuga ko urebye ku iteganyamibare rigereranyije kugeza mu 2028, izamuka ry’ubukungu rizaba riri hafi ya 3%, ari na wo mubare uri hasi ubonetse kuva iyi raporo yatangira gukorwa mu 1990.

Nyamara n’ubwo Isi yose itaka igabanuka ry’igipimo cy’ubukungu, itekinika rya FPR ntirishobora gutuza, ahubwo rikomeza kwerekana ko izamuka ry’ubukungu ryari 3.4% muri 2020, riba 10.9% muri 2021 naho muri 2022 riba 6.8%. Iyi rero ni imibare idashoboka ku gihugu nk’u Rwanda kidafite byinshi cyohereza ku isoko mpuzamahanga, hakaba nta n’igikorwa gifatika cyongerewe mu buhinzi kandi ari bwo butunze umubare munini w’Abanyarwanda. Niba iterambere ry’u Rwanda ribarirwa ku gatsiko gato ka FPR, byaba ari ukwibeshya cyane kuko aka gatsiko katagize na 0.000001% by’Abanyarwanda bose.

Ishingiye rero ku kinyoma cya FPR, IMF yasohoye iteganyamibare ryerekana ko mu 2023, ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buzazamuka kuri 6.2%, mu 2024 rikazaba 7.5%, naho mu 2028 rikazagera kuri 7.3%. Ibi rero nabyo ni igikorwa cyo kwikirigita ugaseka FPR yimakaje, kuko muri gahunda yayo hatarimo iterambere ry’umuturage, ahubwo icyo ireba ni inyungu zayo gusa no kuzuza amakonti yayo mu Rwanda no ku Isi.

Irindi tekinika rya FPR ryatumye IMF itangaza ibidashoboka ni uko iri teganyamibare ryavuze ko ritanga icyizere ku gahenge mu izamuka ry’ibiciro ku masoko, aho umwaka ushize wasize mu Rwanda rigeze kuri 13.9%, ikavuga ko nibura muri uyu mwaka wa 2023 uzasiga rigeze ku 8.2%, mu gihe mu 2024 rizagera kuri 5%. Aha rero niho abahanga mu by’ubukungu bemeza ko ibi bidashoboka, ko uburyo bumwe bushoboka ari ukongera umusaruro w’ibikorerwa imbere mu gihugu, kandi bikaba bitari muri gahunda ya FPR.

Ku rwego rw’Isi, iyi raporo ikomeza igira iti: «Izamuka ry’ibiciro ku Isi rizamanuka ariko ku muvuduko uri hasi kurusha uko byari byitezwe, rive ku 8.7% mu 2022 rigere kuri 7% muri uyu mwaka na 4.9% mu 2024.» Iyi raporo ikomeza ivuga ko nko ku bihugu biri mu ntambara, ubukungu bw’u Burusiya buzazamuka kuri 0.7% mu 2023 buvuye kuri –2.1% mu 2022, mu gihe ubwa Ukraine buzaba –3.0% buvuye kuri –30.3 mu 2022. Iyi mibare rero ivugwa ku Rwanda byaba bisobanuye ko ubukungu bwarwo buzazamukaho inshuro 8.9 ku bukungu bw’u Burusiya, kandi izi ni inzozi zidashobora kuba impamo.

Ibindi bihugu nka Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Amerika, ubukungu buzazamuka kuri 1.6% mu 2023 buvuye kuri 1.7% mu 2022, u Bwongereza ni –0.3% mu 2023 buvuye kuri 4.0% mu 2022, u Budage ni –0.1% buvuye kuri 1.8% mu 2022 naho u Bufaransa buzazamuka kuri 0.7% mu 2023 buvuye kuri 2.6% mu 2022. Ni mu gihe u Bushinwa bwo, ubukungu bwabwo buzazamuka kuri 5.2% mu 2023 buvuye kuri 3.0% mu 2022 na 4.5% mu 2024, mu gihe ubw’u Buhinde buzazamuka kuri 5.9% muri uyu mwaka.

U Rwanda rero ruramutse ruzamutseho 6.2% byaba bivuze ko igipimo cy’izamuka cyaba kiruta ikizagaragara muri ibi bihugu byakataje mu majyambere, kandi ntibishoboka kuko nta kintu kigaragara FPR ishyiramo imbaraga ngo kibe cyazamura igipimo cy’ubukungu bwugarijwe n’amadeni atagira ingano ifata hirya no hino.

Abasesenguzi batandukanye basanga iri tekinika FPR ikora rigaragaza ko u Rwanda rwayobotse ishuri rya Noah Chomsky, mu byo bita “10 techniques de manipulation de masses ”, kuko FPR ikomeje umugambi wo kwica abo idashaka, abandi ikabarunda muri magereza no mu bigo by’inzererezi.

Urugero rwa vuba ni aho mu gitondo cyo ku wa Kabiri, tariki ya 11/04/2023, mu masaha ya kare (04h30), Polisi yarashe Albert Dudabe, wari ufunzwe akekwaho kwica Dr. Muhirwe Charles Karoro, wari umwarimu muri Kaminuza y’u Rwanda, ishami rya Nyagatare. Bivuze ko urupfu rw’uyu mwarimu ruhise rushyirwamo inzitizi, kuko uwari kuzavuga ukuri mu rubanza yishwe, bivugwa ko yarwanyije abapolisi.

Umunsi umwe mbere, mu ijoro ryo ku wa Mbere, tariki ya 10/04/2023, ni abagabo babiri bo mu Karere ka Bugesera barashwe n’abasirikare, bikavugwa ko bahagaritswe ninjoro barabyanga, ahubwo batangira kurwana, abasirikare bahitamo kubarasa. Aha rero niho wibaza niba hari umuturage watinyuka kurwanya umusirikare ufite imbunda, abandi bagatekereza ku hishwe abari bagambiriwe, bikitirirwa ubujura.

Umunyamabanga Nshingwabikorwa w’Umurenge wa Mayange, Sebarundi Ephrem, yatangaje ko abarashwe ari uwitwa Rukeratabaro Gad, w’imyaka 35 y’amavuko, utuye mu Murenge wa Mayange n’uwitwa Urayeneza Jean de Dieu nawe w’imyaka 35 ariko akaba atuye mu Murenge wa Rilima.

Gitifu Sebarundi avuga ko ubwo abo bakekwaho ubujura bageraga mu Mudugudu wa Rukora, bahuye n’abasirikare mu ma saa munani z’ijoro bafite ibikapu, barabahagarika banga guhagarara ahubwo batangira kubarwanya, bakoresheje imipanga bari bitwaje ndetse n’imitarimba bacukuzaga amazu, mu rwego rwo kwitabara bituma babarasa bombi barapfa, kuko aho guhagarara nk’uko bari babisabwe bahise babasatira bashaka kubatema.

Yakomeje avuga ko atari aba bonyine ahubwo ko hari abandi bari kumwe batahise bamenyekana kuko bahise biruka, inzego z’umutekano zikaba zigishakisha amakuru. Ibi rero abaturage bahise babitera utwatsi bavuga ko basanzwe bazi neza aba bagabo bishwe, ko batari abajura, ahubwo bazize amatiku bari bafitanye na Gitifu w’Akagari ka Maranyundo, mu Murenge wa Mayange kuko yashatse kubanyaga isambu bakamutsinda.

Nyirarukundo Mariya ni umugore wa Rukeratabaro Gad, bari bamaranye imyaka 11. Aganira na TV1, yavuze ko umugabo we atari umujura, ndetse ko yari amaze iminsi arwaye ndetse Ibitaro bya Nyamata byari byaramwohereje kwivuriza i Kigali, muri CHUK. Akomeza avuga ko umugabo we yajyanywe n’irondo rimubwira ko niba adashoboye kurara irondo yatanga amafaranga, agahabwa urimurarira, ayabuze bamutwara mu ma saa tatu z’ijoro, mu gitondo abwirwa ko umugabo we yishwe avuye kwiba mu ma saa munani.

Nyirarukundo rero kimwe n’abaturanyi be ntibemera ibyatangajwe na Gitifu, ahubwo bagasaba ubutabera kuri aba bicanyi kandi bakifuza bazaburanira aho bakoreye icyaha. Ikindi kigaragaza ko Leta ibirimo ni uko bahise birukankanwa bajyanwa i Nyamata, ngo bagiye gusuzumwa. Basuzumwaga iki se kandi barashwe, n’ababarashe bari aho bidegembya? Ikindi ni uko bahise bashyingurwa n’Umurenge batagejejwe mu ngo zabo ngo bene bo babakarabye, banabasezereho, ahubwo bagahatirwa kubashyigura batabanje kubareba.

Nta keza ubutegetsi bwa FPR bushakira Abanyarwanda, icyo buzi ni ukubica urubozo no kubakorera jenoside hifashishijwe inzara, maze abagize ngo barazamura ijwi bakicwa cyangwa bagahimbirwa ibyaha bagafungwa ubutazavamo, abandi bakaburirwa irengero.

Dusanga rero nta kindi kizavana Abanyarwanda kuri iyi ngoyi, uretse kuba buri wese yakwitabira Impinduramatwara Gacanzigo, kuko ari yo yonyine yatuma hubakwa igihugu kizira intambara umunyarwanda arwana n’undi, igihugu kizira iterabwoba, akarengane, iyicarubozo na munyangire, kikaba koko igihugu gitemba amata n’ubuki, igihugu kibereye bene cyo, igihugu cyizihiye abavukarwanda bose.

Bitabaye ibyo FPR izakomeza ijye yica umwe umwe, igihe kizagere hasigaye ngerere, kuko ubona nta kindi kiri mu migambi yayo uretse gutekinika ngo abanyamahanga bafasha u Rwanda babone ko rutera imbere, kandi atari byo, ari ibinyoma bikubiye mu mibare gusa, icyo FPR ireba ni ukwigwizaho ibya rubanda gusa.

Ahirwe Karoli